NOAA's outlook for the region is for "Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by the Arctic Oscillation. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow"
While this is the same outlook as was seen for last winter, there is very little predictability for Tri-State storms that are influenced by oscillations in the high latitudes. Recall how the snow machine turned off in February last year.
Note that extreme warmth and dry conditions continue over the southern U.S as this pattern is well correlated with La Nina that has "good' predictability. See more about the winter outlook at http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20101021_winteroutlook.html
While this is the same outlook as was seen for last winter, there is very little predictability for Tri-State storms that are influenced by oscillations in the high latitudes. Recall how the snow machine turned off in February last year.
Note that extreme warmth and dry conditions continue over the southern U.S as this pattern is well correlated with La Nina that has "good' predictability. See more about the winter outlook at http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20101021_winteroutlook.html
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