NOAA's outlook for the region is for "Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by the Arctic Oscillation. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow"  

While this is the same outlook as was seen for last winter, there is very little predictability for Tri-State storms that are influenced by oscillations in the high latitudes.  Recall how the snow machine turned off in February last year. 

Note that extreme warmth and dry conditions continue over the southern U.S as this pattern is well correlated with La Nina that has "good' predictability.  See more about the winter outlook at http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20101021_winteroutlook.html
 
The National Snow and Ice Data Center Reported yesterday that "summer sea ice melt season has ended in the Arctic. Arctic sea ice extent reached its low for the year, the second lowest in the satellite record, on September 9. The minimum extent was only slightly above 2007, the record low year, even though weather conditions this year were not as conducive to ice loss as in 2007. Both the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route were open for a period during September.

Read More at:  http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
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